Verified technical progress, overlaid on market valuation.

Compare verified technical progress against market valuation across listed and private frontier actors. Every figure links to a primary source.

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Reading the verified dataset: 150 actors · 15 active fields · 314 primary sources

Recently verified

The latest milestones confirmed against a primary source.

2026-10-08
Nuclear FusionMagnetized-target fusion plasma heated past 1 keV
General Fusion LM26, co-published with UKAEASource ↗
2026-10-07
Quantum ComputingGovernment testers move six quantum approaches to hands-on hardware verification
DARPA QBI Stage C — Atom Computing, Diraq, IBM, IonQ (joining Microsoft, PsiQuantum)Source ↗
2026-09-28
Small Modular ReactorsFirst US construction permit for a commercial small modular reactor
TVA / GE Vernova Hitachi BWRX-300 — Clinch River, TennesseeSource ↗
2026-09-28
Reusable RocketsStarship reaches orbit and delivers its first operational payload
SpaceX — Flight 14, 26 Starlink V3 satellitesSource ↗
2026-09-22
Small Modular Reactorsnewcleo lists on Nasdaq via SPAC (NWCL)
newcleo / NewHold IIISource ↗
2026-09-17
Frontier AIA frontier lab publishes numbers on its own rate of AI-driven R&D
Anthropic — automation index, agent oversight, safety computeSource ↗

Latest catalysts

Stock-moving events across the tracked companies — the figures may sit still, but the news doesn't.

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2026-10-12
CredibilityAn Anthropic model invented an eyewitness and filed it as a tip on an unsolved Philadelphia murder
AnthropicThe Washington Post
2026-10-10
CredibilityDARPA moved four more quantum companies to hands-on hardware testing — six rival approaches, one outside yardstick
Atom ComputingIBM / DARPA
2026-10-10
GuidanceOracle may truck gas to its $165B Stargate campus — at 100 MW, one trailer lasts about 40 minutes
OracleTransport Topics / Bloomberg
2026-10-05
DealSouth Korea will finance eight large US reactors under a $120B framework — two of them Korean designs
WestinghouseNucNet / Westinghouse
2026-10-05
DealMusk confirmed TSMC is in talks to run Terafab — a fab owned by its customer, which TSMC has never done
TSMCTom's Hardware
2026-10-03
DealVoters pushed Amazon's data center away from Calvert Cliffs — Amazon bought the nuclear plant's power anyway
Amazon (AWS)Nuclear Engineering International

Verified milestones

Every technical figure links to a primary source — papers, filings, press.

Market overlay

Delayed price & market cap, mapped onto the same 0–5 maturity scale.

Labeled opinion

The technology ↔ market gap is explicitly opinion — never a rating or price target.

Technology ↔ market gap

Our signature view overlays the verified technical stage on the market-implied stage — showing where price runs ahead of, or behind, demonstrated progress.

Market ahead

Price implies a more advanced stage than primary sources confirm.

Aligned

Valuation broadly tracks verified technical progress.

Progress ahead

Verified progress runs ahead of what the market prices in.

Gap = market-implied stage − verified technical stage, within each field cohort.

Explore by field

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Nuclear Fusion

How close are we to net-positive fusion energy?

17 companies · 6 metrics

Quantum Computing

How close are we to a useful quantum computer?

18 companies · 5 metrics

Small Modular Reactors

How close are small modular reactors to commercial power?

14 companies · 2 metrics

Humanoid Robots

How close are general-purpose humanoid robots to real work?

13 companies · 3 metrics

Autonomous Driving

How close are driverless cars to scale?

13 companies · 3 metrics

Reusable Rockets

How cheap and routine is access to orbit becoming?

6 companies · 4 metrics

Furthest along, by verified stage

Listed companies ranked by verified technical stage (0–5).

GE Vernova Hitachi GEV

4.0 / 5

Oklo OKLO

4.0 / 5

UBTECH Robotics 9880.HK

4.0 / 5

XPeng XPEV

4.0 / 5

Our signature view overlays the verified technical stage on the market-implied stage — showing where price runs ahead of, or behind, demonstrated progress.

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