Frontier Milestones Invest BETA
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Not investment advice · Market data delayed ≥ 15 min · Technical data last verified 2026-08-31 · No ratings, price targets or buy / sell signals are shown

Methodology

How we derive the figures on Frontier Milestones Invest, and where the line sits between fact and opinion.

Verified technical stage (0–5)

For each field we publish a five-stage ladder to the goal (below). An actor’s verified stage is the highest ladder stage reached by an achieved milestone, plus a half-stage when work at the next stage is in progress. It is computed deterministically from the verified dataset — a derived fact, not a forecast. Funding, IPO and M&A events never count toward a technical stage.

Market-implied stage (0–5) — OPINION OPINION

Within a cohort of listed peers we fit the relationship between valuation and verified stage — regressing log(valuation) on verified stage to obtain a “value-for-maturity” line. A company’s valuation is then read back onto that line as an implied stage. The cohort is the company’s own field wherever at least three listed peers carry a verified stage and those stages differ; otherwise it is the broader sector (compute · energy · robotics · space · bio), because most frontier fields are still mostly private. A sector-cohort reading is a looser comparison and is labelled as such wherever it appears, with the number of peers in the fit and how well the line fits them (R²). A cohort whose line explains less than 30% of the variation is discarded rather than shown — with only a handful of peers, one outlier can leave a line that slopes the right way while meaning nothing. Where a valuation falls off the end of the line, the reading is shown as a floor (“≥”), not as a measured distance. Diversified parents — where the ticker prices far more than the tracked frontier — are excluded from every fit. This is an opinion about what the market appears to price — not a fact about the company.

The gap — OPINION OPINION

Gap = market-implied stage − verified technical stage: the company’s distance from its cohort’s value-for-maturity line, in stage units. Beyond ±0.5 it is labelled market-ahead or progress-ahead; within, aligned. It is shown only where a real valuation and a cohort fit exist — listed companies first, private companies once round data is structured — and never as a recommendation.

Tech Score (0–100) — OPINION OPINION

Tech Score = two-thirds verified maturity (verified stage ÷ 5) + one-third momentum (recency-weighted achieved technical milestones). It measures demonstrated technical progress only — market valuation is deliberately excluded and lives in the gap instead, so company size never inflates the score. An FM-defined composite (hence labelled opinion) — explicitly NOT investment merit, NOT a recommendation, rating or price target.

The stage ladders below are a first pass under domain review. The gap activates as live market data connects.

Coverage — how much of the roster this holds for

The figures on this site only mean something where verified milestones exist. This is the current split, recomputed at every build, for the tracked companies. Full = two or more ladder-tagged milestones with at least one achieved; partial = one; observing = none, where the site shows price and catalysts but no stage, Tech Score or gap.

Full Partial Observing
All tracked companies n=126 36 29% 36 29% 54 43%
Listed companies n=56 15 27% 16 29% 25 45%

Field stage ladders

Nuclear Fusion Goal Net-positive, grid-connected fusion power
  1. 1 Plasma & confinement High-temperature or long-duration plasma demonstrated
  2. 2 Scientific breakeven Ignition / Q≥1 in the lab
  3. 3 Repeatable gain & engineering Target gain, peer-validated physics or major plant hardware
  4. 4 Pilot plant licensed/built Demo/pilot plant permitted, under construction or design-reviewed
  5. 5 Commercial power Net-positive plant delivering power to the grid
Quantum Computing Goal Useful, fault-tolerant quantum computing
  1. 1 Scale & supremacy 1,000+ physical qubits or quantum supremacy
  2. 2 Below-threshold QEC Below-threshold error correction (logical < physical)
  3. 3 Many logical qubits Tens of logical qubits / strong error suppression
  4. 4 Fault-tolerant scaling Commercial fault-tolerant systems sold / modular scaling
  5. 5 Useful FTQC Cryptographically-relevant or commercially useful FTQC
Small Modular Reactors Goal Commercial small modular reactor power
  1. 1 Design First-of-kind design developed
  2. 2 Licensed design Design certified/licensed by a regulator
  3. 3 Construction permit Construction permit issued / groundbreaking
  4. 4 Under construction First concrete/basemat or demo reactor criticality
  5. 5 Commercial online Commercial SMR delivering power
Humanoid Robots Goal Mass-produced general-purpose humanoids
  1. 1 Advanced platform Advanced electric humanoid hardware
  2. 2 Paid pilots Paid warehouse/factory pilots
  3. 3 Commercial deployment Commercial deals / sustained autonomous shifts
  4. 4 Volume manufacturing Dedicated factory at volume (≈10k/yr)
  5. 5 Mass-produced general-purpose Mass-produced general-purpose humanoids
Autonomous Driving Goal Profitable, nationwide robotaxi service
  1. 1 Public driverless First public driverless operation
  2. 2 Paid in a city Paid driverless approved in a city
  3. 3 Scale in cities High volume in operating cities (100M+ miles, 100k+ rides/wk)
  4. 4 Multi-market expansion Multi-market / freeway / broad expansion
  5. 5 Profitable nationwide Profitable, nationwide service
Reusable Rockets Goal Fully & rapidly reusable super-heavy launch
  1. 1 Booster landing First orbital booster landing
  2. 2 Booster reflight Reflight of an orbital booster
  3. 3 High reuse cadence Many flights per booster / second-mover reuse
  4. 4 Super-heavy reuse demo Fully reusable super-heavy demonstration
  5. 5 Routine super-heavy reuse Fully & rapidly reusable super-heavy in service
Brain-Computer Interfaces Goal FDA-approved commercial brain-computer interface
  1. 1 Human implant (research) Human cortical implant for control
  2. 2 Next-gen human implants Next-gen implants in humans (multiple teams)
  3. 3 Regulatory clearance Regulatory clearance / first commercial approval
  4. 4 Pivotal trials / scaled use Pivotal trials or scaled clinical use
  5. 5 FDA-approved commercial BCI First FDA-approved commercial BCI
Air Taxis (eVTOL) Goal Scaled, profitable passenger eVTOL service
  1. 1 Prototype / type certificate Prototype flight or first type certificate
  2. 2 Piloted city/airport flights Piloted inter-airport / city flights
  3. 3 Certification progress Advanced certification stage (e.g. FAA Stage 4 of 5)
  4. 4 Certified + initial ops Type certification complete + initial commercial ops
  5. 5 Scaled passenger service Scaled, profitable passenger service
Commercial Space Stations Goal Commercial stations replace the ISS in LEO
  1. 1 Design funded Commercial station design funded
  2. 2 Module qualification Station module qualification testing
  3. 3 First station to orbit First commercial station reaches orbit
  4. 4 Operational crewed station Operational crewed commercial station
  5. 5 Replaces ISS in LEO Commercial stations take over LEO
Frontier AI Goal AGI — broadly human-level capability
  1. 1 Mainstream LLM GPT-4-class model (~1e25 FLOP)
  2. 2 Frontier scaling + reasoning 1e26-FLOP scale + reasoning models
  3. 3 Beats abstraction benchmarks Beats hard abstraction benchmarks (ARC-AGI)
  4. 4 Robust general agency Robust general agentic capability across new benchmarks
  5. 5 AGI Broadly human-level capability
Leading-Edge Chips Goal 1.4 nm-class chips in volume production
  1. 1 EUV volume EUV lithography in volume production
  2. 2 GAA node First gate-all-around node
  3. 3 2 nm-class + backside power 2 nm-class volume + backside power delivery
  4. 4 Sub-2 nm ramp Sub-2 nm node ramping
  5. 5 1.4 nm-class volume 1.4 nm-class node in volume
Solid-State Batteries Goal Automotive-qualified solid-state cells at scale
  1. 1 Lab cell High-energy solid-state cell demonstrated in lab
  2. 2 B-sample Cells delivered to an OEM (B-sample)
  3. 3 Pilot line Solid-state pilot production line operational
  4. 4 Initial production Automotive qualification / first cells in production vehicles
  5. 5 Automotive scale Solid-state cells at automotive scale
AI Data Centers Goal A ~10 GW AI data-center campus in service
  1. 1 Frontier cluster ~100k-accelerator single-site cluster online (~100–150 MW)
  2. 2 Gigawatt-class site Gigawatt-class power at one site (~200k accelerators)
  3. 3 Half-million class / multi-GW build ~500k-accelerator fleet, or a multi-GW campus under construction
  4. 4 Million-accelerator scale ~1M accelerators or a multi-GW campus operating
  5. 5 10 GW campus A single campus delivering on the order of 10 GW
Carbon Removal (DAC) Goal Durable CO₂ removal at ~$100 per tonne
  1. 1 Commercial plant First commercial DAC plant operating (kt/yr class)
  2. 2 10× scale-up ~10 kt/yr-class plant operating
  3. 3 100 kt/yr class Plant ramping at the 100 kt/yr scale or above
  4. 4 Megatonne plant A single plant removing ~1 Mt/yr
  5. 5 $100/tonne Capture and storage at roughly $100 per tonne
Satellite Internet & Direct-to-Cell Goal Continuous global direct-to-cell connectivity
  1. 1 LEO constellation Operational LEO broadband constellation
  2. 2 Direct-to-cell demo Messaging to ordinary, unmodified phones from orbit
  3. 3 Dedicated D2C satellites Purpose-built direct-to-cell satellites in orbit
  4. 4 Commercial D2C service Commercial voice & data direct-to-cell with carrier partners
  5. 5 Continuous global D2C Any ordinary phone connected anywhere, continuously